USCIS will weight H-1B lottery by salary starting Feb 2026

by codebyadityaon 1/22/2026, 2:58 PMwith 8 comments

by codebyadityaon 1/22/2026, 2:59 PM

Author here.

Quick summary of probability shifts under the weighted system:

  Level I ($80K median):  -57% selection probability
  Level II ($103K median): -14%
  Level III ($135K median): +29%
  Level IV ($158K median): +73%
The counterintuitive finding: product companies (direct employers) have 22% Level I concentration vs 7% for staffing firms. The rule designed to stop "lottery abuse" hits direct employers 3x harder.

Data source: DOL LCA disclosure data. Happy to discuss methodology.