Targeted Bets: An alternative approach to the job hunt

by seany62on 1/19/2026, 9:35 PMwith 107 comments

by dworkson 1/20/2026, 1:22 PM

A few times in my life I have found job opportunities that would have been my dreamjob and I was uniquely qualified due to a cross-disciplinary background, previous experience and education, language skills and such. I was an SME with technical skills and I had so much knowledge of the company's products, industry and competitors that I could have done their marketing strategy and product strategy in a couple of weeks. Maybe it wouldn't all have been correct from the start, but I had so much knowledge that I could have done this by heart.

I spent a lot of time on targeted applications for these places, re-doing my CV and spending weeks iterating on my cover letter. I never heard back from any of those places.

Instead I've been hired into industries I knew nothing about. Sure, I was a decent candidate, but I was just another candidate. This has worked out fine.

Why did these places hire me and not the others? Because they were growing so they had a need to hire. The former places did not.

So for me the only real advice is to apply to places that are growing. When places are growing and really need to hire to expand, all the bullshit in the process is eliminated. Decisions are made fast. It's easier and more pleasant.

by cal_denton 1/20/2026, 12:16 AM

FWIW one of the things about advice on job hunting (and a lot of other things in life tbh) is that no one ever seems to acknowledge that, more often than we like to think, it's just luck.

Yes reaching out to your network is good, putting yourself out there through direct contact where possible is good (early in my career two jobs which were real stepping stones came from emailing a head of and ceo directly after a conference), spending time trying to find your edge relatively to others is good. But there are so many points in the whole process where it's simply luck of the draw that spray and pray within reason isn't a completely ridiculous route.

Unless you're already in a role, try what you have to. It's no fun in it but things are always easier once you don't have anything to fall back too.

by ebiesteron 1/19/2026, 11:03 PM

It's interesting that the first thing you see in the comments is "don't contact anyone."

Right now we're in a weird place - if you have a network, you're pretty well off. If your network isn't hiring, or you are early in your career, it's brutal trying to get through the noise.

The truth is that proof of work matters. But the big problem is that proof of work is easy to fake right now. It takes being creative. I get a few emails a month right now. Honestly, I think this isn't going to work at this point - some go to my personal and some go to my professional emails. But what might work?

Look at people who are writing blogs. Is there something interesting on their blog? Is that worth engaging them on first? (I mean, don't waste their time if you aren't interested or if you're going to submarine it the second or third email - someone will feel used - but showing a dual purpose of the email might not be the worst thing and even if they don't have a position or influence on the position, you might have a good conversation.

Are you involved on bluesky/twitter/threads? Are you getting positive engagement? Are you finding ways to make community? It may not get the formal referral but it might make the social referral and give you 30 extra seconds with the resume and a reason to say yes.

by leenyon 1/19/2026, 11:39 PM

This is very good advice. Because OP doesn't talk about how to write emails, here's how to write good cold emails to hiring managers/employees/CEOs: https://interviewing.io/blog/how-to-get-in-the-door-at-top-c...

P.S. I'm CEO of a Series A company. I get a lot of email from prospective candidates. I never hold it against them, and as long as it doesn't look like spam, I reply. Telling people not to send emails (I saw a bunch of that in the comments) is categorically bad advice.

by Atomic_Torrfiskon 1/20/2026, 9:09 AM

> You are specifically interested in the job for reasons other than the money. It is unlikely that other applicants want the job as badly as you do.

This is really rat race to the bottom. Obviously it goes without saying that people passionate about a project get preference, but if you are trying to wind yourself up to be "passionate" your winding yourself up to accept less for more work.

> Do not ask employees for a referral!

This amount of times I get asked for blind referrals is insane. Maybe it is a non-western thing, but I nor anyone else I know does this or accepts these requests. It only kills an application, since it looks deceitful, an applicant should stand on their own.

> If the company is <30 people, reach out to the CEO directly.

There is already a lot of spam filtering through their inbox, this is white noise. This maaaay only work if you know them on other channels and they are "cool".

> Again, send more than one email.

lol

CS is oversaturated right now for many reasons. Regardless, mass applications do not work unless you are cheating, targeted applications do not work unless everyone else does the same. The best bet is internal networks, or searching for work in unexpected locations, e.g. webmaster at the local pulp mill.

source: I worked in hiring for small stints over 7 years

by Beijingeron 1/20/2026, 2:18 AM

I tried this a lot. It did not work for me. But I also only sent one email and did not follow up. A few points:

1. Getting rejected does not say anything about you. The guy they hire says a lot about the company.

2. "If the interviewer(s) in question feel like you're trying to circumvent them, you're probably making your case worse"

This is the whole point. In most cased you don't deal with an expert, but with HR. HR are idiots most of the time. HR, like real estate, has also very low entrance requirements. This does not mean that all people are idiots, but the field attracts idiots.

3. A job is a sale. You have to sell yourself. And unfortunately there is only one way to make the buyer happy: Sell him what he wants, not what he needs.

by tekacson 1/19/2026, 10:13 PM

> If the company is <30 people, reach out to the CEO directly.

When the people you're interviewing with are 'already senior' (e.g. direct reports to the CEO), you can sometimes make your case worse rather than better, because it feels like you're going over their head.

So rather than size...

- If the interviewer(s) in question feel like you're trying to circumvent them, you're probably making your case worse.

- The kind of CEO that tends to meddle in things below their level might drag down your case even if they like you, because folks can develop a distaste for their meddling.

- Doing this for senior roles, or roles at small companies can actually be worse, because the person in question is more likely to be close in reporting chain to the CEO, who is more likely to directly meddle in your hiring process. Zero- or one-level removed can be the worst.

by drillsteps5on 1/19/2026, 10:41 PM

> Instead of applying broadly, identify 5-10 specific opportunities you genuinely want.

Do that.

>Get in contact with current employees at the company. It is important that you send more than one email.

Don't do that.

>I've gotten dozens of emails asking for meetings and referrals.

I've never gotten one in my entire career, and I was hiring manager in multiple companies/roles.

>If the company is <30 people, reach out to the CEO directly.

Don't never ever EVER do that.

Edit: formatting

by ericmceron 1/20/2026, 6:34 PM

I had a really nice job hunt this time around because:

- I quit my job to work on a side project in a specific space (voice AI for me).

- Spent three months shipping a few things and sinking into the area.

- Apply to jobs in that space, custom cover letter if applicable.

- Reach out directly to hiring people/engineers on LinkedIn for those companies, if it is engineers I usually say things like "did you also struggle with 'x'", "I solved 'Y' by doing __"

- Be genuinely interested in that space.

~50% reach out to interview rate using that strategy.

by gnarlouseon 1/20/2026, 3:15 PM

A knock on consequence if everybody did this:

- HR is no longer inundated with garbage resumes

- Hiring managers can actually focus on the resumes in their inbox and assume that people are genuinely interested in the role.

- The whole system works more efficiently.

From day one I thought the whole notion of AI in the hiring process (on both sides: candidates submitting AI resumes, HR filtering resumes with AI) was positively absurd. I hope more people catch on.

by biophysboyon 1/19/2026, 11:30 PM

Why isn't there a job search website that forces you to adopt this targeted bet strategy? The game theory of job-hunting incentivizes both submitters and receivers to adopt inefficient practices. Why not limit applications to one per day to signal genuine interest? Then you can demonstrate skill at an in-person interview, or at your local legally-bound interview center? (my very boring sci-fi prediction)

by cadamsdotcomon 1/19/2026, 10:48 PM

I think the author is saying “don’t spray and pray”.

Seems like good advice.

by lbritoon 1/19/2026, 10:14 PM

>Get in contact with current employees at the company. It is important that you send more than one email. I've gotten dozens of emails asking for meetings and referrals. The only time I actually respond to these is after the second email.

Please, no. Go through the proper channels like everyone else. If you have a referral - great. Otherwise, DON'T spam current employees you randomly find on linkedin or whatever. I get those from time to time and ignore 100% of them.

by apwheeleon 1/21/2026, 2:28 PM

I generally do not agree with this advice (or you can do both, cold emailing folks should not prevent you from cold applying to other jobs). It really just hinges on what you think your probability increase is relative to the amount of time you spend, https://crimede-coder.com/news/Post004.

by daxfohlon 1/20/2026, 4:46 PM

Often when doing that, you look up the company on blind and it's got a 3 star rating with low pay, bad management, and no vision, though decent WLB.

My theory is that a lot of companies are one trick ponies. By the time you've heard of them, the core of their product is finished and they're left floating and have to make up stuff to pretend to work on.

by apt-apt-apt-apton 1/20/2026, 3:54 PM

This seems contradictory, why not to ask employees for a referral?

"Contact current employees [presumably ask for referral]."

"Don't ask employees for a referral, most are incentivized (referral bonus) to give you one if you can convince them"

by sennalenon 1/20/2026, 4:24 PM

"Get in contact with current employees at the company"

and draw the rest of the owl?

This blog is really missing the core question of what contact would be more effective than applying to the company's explicit job postings

by hammockon 1/20/2026, 12:38 AM

In real estate and private equity this is called a “buy box.” It works.

by FrustratedMonkyon 1/20/2026, 11:12 AM

Broadly I think this is nice summary of "what color is your parachute". That whole book is basically how to target like this. Just lot more examples and methods to do it.

by seany62on 1/19/2026, 9:35 PM

I posted this mainly as something to refer friends to when they complain about something being to competitive / hard to get. Thought I'd shoot it here too.

by aswegs8on 1/20/2026, 10:13 AM

Not sure why this is news. This is a common approach and has been so well since pre-Corona times.

by red-iron-pineon 1/20/2026, 2:32 PM

what a useless article. how are you reaching these people? what are you saying to them?

it's implied but not said that you should be talking to people from the same school or hometown... but what if you're from NYC, or Mumbai?

by Unbeliever69on 1/20/2026, 4:10 PM

Isn't this basically What Color is Your Parachute?

by rvzon 1/19/2026, 11:06 PM

Or even better. Build yourself a startup.

by johnnyanmacon 1/20/2026, 12:35 AM

>You have a unique connection to the company.

So it comes back to "networking", huh? Sadly the advice doesn't work if your network is either also laid off or simply is in a soft/hard hiring freeze. They can't connect you to what isn't there.

And that's even before following point #1. This far in my career I don't really have a "dream job" anymore. My dream is to be my own boss. But I need a bit more money and a smidgen more time to establish myself there. So those facts make me fall back to "apply to whatever fits my skillset, maybe ping to check vibes if I know anyone".