I have no doubt the real numbers are higher than they would have been 6 months ago, but keep in mind that they solicited responses in an article titled "These frustrated scientists want to leave the United States — do you? Take Nature’s poll":
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00757-1
That's one way to guarantee some shockingly high sampling bias.
I have no doubt the real numbers are higher than they would have been 6 months ago, but keep in mind that they solicited responses in an article titled "These frustrated scientists want to leave the United States — do you? Take Nature’s poll":
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00757-1
That's one way to guarantee some shockingly high sampling bias.