I have trouble distinguishing this post from those on r/wallstreetbets. To be honest, I have seen quite a few posts on wsb that are much more informative than this
Do all of geohot's posts come off as manic to anyone else?
> Bought in for a quarter million. Long term. It can always dip short term, but check back in 5 years.
So basically he got 2 MI300s and is currently trying to pump AMD?
"I’m betting on AMD being undervalued, and that the demand for AI has barely started."
I'd love to see AMD get a multiplatorm product so mature that I can pip install PyTorch on Windows or MacOS with an AMD card (https://pytorch.org/get-started/locally/). But I don't think that their market cap will change quickly even if this happens. Many people have been bought AMD cards in the past because they are cheaper and then died waiting for AMD to have a mature CUDA equivalent. Nobody is going to be quickly buying AMD cards as soon as the software is good- they will gradually change when they replace NVDA hardware, and not everyone is going to make that choice.
If I were making a bet (and I'm not), I'd bet that NVDA is overvalued right now and their growth will slow to correct this but it won't crash, and I'd bet that AMD will gradually increase in value to reward them for software investments, but it won't spike as soon as their software looks good. Neither of these things would I want to put a lot of money on, since they are long term bets, and if you're going long then you might as well just invest in the broader market. And even if I thought that NVDA was going to crash and AMD was going to spike, I still wouldn't bet because I have no idea whether it would happen in the next 6 months or 6 years.
Unfortunately I think the current AI hype cycle will die down before AMD ever gets a chance to benefit from it in terms of stock price.
AMD is not undervalued, rather it is Nvidia that is overvalued.
I saw a video the other day that showed a new AMD laptop processor that is comparable to the Apple processors in performance and battery life. That was very surprising and also a great thing for windows or Linux laptops. But at the same time, the market for these and the potential for profit isn’t really that big. Consumers are willing to pay for a premium for Apple but not anyone else.
I would really love it if people on Hacker News could weigh in on how much of a moat they think CUDA really is. As in: How hard is it to use something else? If you started a project today how much would you want to get paid to not use CUDA?
A lot of readers on this site have a good insight into this and it is a key question financial people are asking without the knowledge many people here possess.
RDNA 4 is proving that AMD can be competitive in GPUs. Is it on par with Blackwell? No. Is is a much better improvement over previous gen than Blackwell? Yes, at least if you consider consumer pricing/marketing.
I like the guy but he is wrong. Besides the CUDA ecosystem, Nvidia hardware has a lot of features and a lot of things to yet optimize. Like optimizations by DeepSeek (non-CUTLASS custom models and DualPipe). I think Nvidia's current hardware has plenty of legs and that's why they are not rushed on releasing next gen chips.
The actual challenger is Cerebras. No need to load (VRAM->SRAM) all the parameters for every batch . But they have yet to prove they can scale and support the custom stack. We'll see.
I heard that Nvidia's graph cards are the best in the class in terms of power consumption vs TFLOP ration. I wonder what's the number of AMD vs Nvidia? I would like to see the number because power consumption is going to take a big portion of AI training. In comparsion, hardware might not be that expensive in the long run.
AMD is finally starting to make progress with their software stack. Who would have thought?
AMD is probably undervalued, but Nvidia is clearly way overvalued.
I don't think the reckoning will come from AMD stealing Nvidia's market share, it'll come when the hype bubble collapses and businesses start treating neural networks like commodities, running whatever is cheapest instead of the absolute most powerful. AMD is in a great position, because they make both great GPU/NPU hardware and great CPU hardware.